0.25
0.5
0.75
1.25
1.5
1.75
2
Presentation
Climate Prediction00:00
What makes climate prediction possible?17:00:41
Weather versus climate46:09:32
Mean January surface temperature (°C)66:06:58
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get" - E. Lorenz88:43:30
Global surface temperature changes101:19:49
Example 1: Winter extra-tropical atmospheric variability118:39:55
Winter 2012/2013 was one of the coldest in Europe122:06:10
Atmospheric circulation behind extreme winters132:43:23
The North Atlantic Oscillation151:03:55
Simplest stochastic climate model174:28:17
Winter extra-tropical atmosphere ~ stochastic process201:06:38
Example 2: Tropical Pacific interannualclimate variability203:54:47
Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST)206:30:42
Historical El Niño variations - 1222:43:54
Historical El Niño variations - 2230:46:32
El Niño Southern Oscillation: Coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon241:52:12
El Niño Southern Oscillation: Recharge oscillator model251:29:18
Example 3: North Atlantic multi-decadal variability285:19:17
Pronounced 70-80 year variation in observed North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature289:37:53
Atlantic multi-decadal variability:mechanism uncertain, but ocean circulation plays a key role305:42:35
Ocean driven by stochastic atmospheric variability342:26:46
Initial and boundary value predictability376:10:00
Weather Forecasting and Climate Prediction384:37:31
Predictability of 1st and 2nd kind: Initial value and boundary value410:15:29
Boundary forcing on the atmosphere - 1438:49:36
Boundary forcing on the atmosphere - 2449:05:28
Initial value predictability depends on underlying processes453:20:38
Climate prediction system480:33:16
Example 1: Seasonal prediction of winter extra-tropical atmosphere circulation500:02:03
Example 2: Seasonal prediction of Tropical Pacific climate - Initial value522:18:12
Correlation skill as function of lead time for all start months: Dynamical and statistical (dashed) models524:29:33
Skill increases by reducing model systematic error549:04:40
Example 3: Decadal prediction of climate - Initial and boundary value550:52:16
Skill of CMIP5 initialized near-term forecasts556:45:47
North Atlantic subpolar gyre - very predictable591:44:28
What makes climate prediction possible?628:36:59