Can cascades be predicted?

Published on 2014-06-0214033 Views

Social networks play a central role in spreading of information, ideas, behaviors, and products. As such "contagions" diffuse from a person to person they may go “viral,” and large cascades can form.

Solomon seminar

Presentation

Can cascades be predicted?00:00

Social Networks09:16:18

Networks & Information - 112:59:55

Networks & Information - 215:12:22

Diffusion in Networks - 133:54:50

Diffusion in Networks - 258:59:00

Diffusion in Networks - 362:40:05

Diffusion in Networks - 464:01:38

Diffusion in Networks - 564:34:02

Diffusion in Networks - 664:54:47

Diffusion in Networks - 765:31:55

Diffusion in Networks - 866:20:58

Diffusion in Networks - 966:30:25

Diffusion in Networks - 1066:47:40

An Information Cascade69:46:33

Cascades in Viral Marketing - 177:26:28

Cascades in Viral Marketing - 286:39:41

Cascades in Viral Marketing - 387:24:52

Cascades in Viral Marketing - 488:04:35

Cascades in Viral Marketing - 589:14:37

Cascades in Viral Marketing - 690:31:06

Recommendation Network 99:52:13

Cascades in Social Media119:01:34

Re-sharing of content - 1125:29:09

Re-sharing of content - 2129:14:19

Re-sharing of content - 3134:35:15

How does Information Spread?146:03:09

How does Content Spread? - 1172:16:59

How does Content Spread? - 2191:21:50

Unpredictability of Cascades204:50:07

Plan for the Talk216:18:47

Can cascades be predicted?226:01:10

Cascade prediction problem233:17:45

Formulating the problem - 1239:31:36

Formulating the problem - 2248:18:13

Formulating the problem - 3259:03:36

Formulating the problem - 4265:27:36

Formulating the problem - 5274:55:41

Formulating the problem - 6281:00:12

Cascade Growth Prediction286:41:53

> Median? ≡ Will it double?308:49:25

Problem Formulation322:44:30

Cascade Growth: Prediction Problem - 1329:25:34

Cascade Growth: Prediction Problem - 2334:01:23

Facebook Data341:12:49

Factors of Predictability357:21:43

Predictability of Cascades379:07:47

Predictability - 1399:30:06

Predictability - 2409:15:42

Predictability improves with k - 1424:46:00

Predictability - 3434:45:21

Predictability improves with k - 2453:10:51

Network, Source & Content - 1471:48:56

Network, Source & Content - 2481:41:41

Growth & the Initial Structure487:07:06

Structure and Growth500:18:32

Cascade Structure513:00:03

Structural Virality522:23:48

Predictability of Structure - 1533:15:53

Predictability of Structure - 2537:44:10

Predictability of Cascades554:21:49

Content and Popularity557:11:12

Can we differentiate cascades of the same content?561:54:01

Experimental Setup564:18:33

Predictability - 4578:15:58

Predictability - 5579:07:36

So…how do I make my posts go "viral"?608:05:57

Maximize Content Success612:06:00

Teasing Apart the Effects627:43:19

Dataset: Reddit!637:17:58

Content on Reddit - 1649:18:21

Content on Reddit - 2668:38:43

Understanding Popularity674:07:07

Our Approach685:34:33

Temporal Effects - 1697:50:05

Temporal Effects - 2706:51:24

Inter-Community Effects723:24:40

Model: Time and Community736:30:27

Model: Language effects744:12:35

Evaluation - 1778:11:41

Evaluation - 2795:11:38

Evaluation - 3814:33:28

Evaluation - 4830:36:58

Conclusion - 1835:52:24

Conclusion - 2842:59:21

Further Qs: Interactions852:13:41

Further Qs: Opinion dynamics860:22:14

Reflections870:33:41

Thanks!897:15:08

References899:18:09